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Research Program

Information Shocks

Marek Jarociński and Peter Karadi have a new journal article in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics on the role that information shocks play in the economy. This is a useful paper for Federal Reserve, ECB, and RBA watchers:

Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank’s assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency co-movement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy nonneutrality.